ABOUT Naeco's Betting Advice

New group see Prof

Hey there, I am going to be re-booting my free betting advice group from ages back.

I have been betting for around 7 months now and follow the professional CS:GO scene avidly. I am pretty much a pro CS addict, watch more games than I should and have a very deep knowledge base regarding betting/the pro CS scene.

Lounge Stats is entirely inaccurate and csgobackpack crashes when I use it due to the number of bets I have made, so I dont have a graph I can show you; but I can tell you that I am +$14,100 at the moment after starting with $100 in late October (which is when I started betting seriously). There is also a gyazo of my most recent bets at the time of posting this

I will make a daily post in the morning with predictions for the EU games of the day (as I am based in England) and an evening post with the NA games. If any other games pop up on lounge after the post s out I will make an Announcement with the analysis for that game.

Bets the day of writing this bio[gyazo.com]

Bets the day of writing this bio #2[gyazo.com]

Click here to view my spreadsheet[docs.google.com]

If you are going to take my advice seriously, PLEASE read the pinned discussion thread about my style of betting, it is important you understand it before reading my analysis and using my analysis to influence your decision making.

-Naeco

P.S. Please don't add me on steam to discuss anything betting related, just comment on my analysis, I'll reply :)

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RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS

7.4.2016 EU

7 April, 2016 - neb | 0 Comments

Penta vs Empire | 50-50 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 2/5

Initially I would favor penta here, but they are just too random, as are Empire, I couldn't even try to predict this veto if I wanted to, and you never know which version of each team you are gonna get, this is a skip if I 've ever seen one.

Recommended Bet: SKIP, unless odds go heavy either way, a small bet on the underdog might be worth it

E-Frag vs Gambit | 60-40 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 3/5

I am giving E-Frag the edge here mainly because of Map pool, Gambit seem to only play 3 maps well, Train, Cache and Inferno while E-frag have a much wider map pool. Predicted veto:

E-Frag veto Train
Gambit veto Overpass
E-Frag pick D2
Gambit pick Cache
Random 3rd between Inferno, Cobble, and Mirage

I honestly think E-Frag will 2-0 this game if they veto correctly and pick D2. The bans are obvious, both teams have their perma-bans that they never play. E-Frag don't have that 1 map they always pick because they are good on many maps, but it usually comes down to either Cache or D2, and since Cache is Gambit's best map, and they will likely pick it anyway, E-Frag should pick D2 themselves. If it happens to go to a 3rd map, E-Frag are good on Inferno, though weak on Cobble and Mirage (as are Gambit keep in mind) so it would basically be a tossup.

Recommended Bet: 4% E-Frag if they stay below 55%

SK vs HR | 50-50 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 1/5

HR played very well yesterday, getting off to a very good start in this group. SK did alright, and to be honest, for the way they played they were lucky to get 2 maps out of it. SK really need to get at least 1 map out of this series if they want to stay competitive in the group. SK just played too poorly yesterday for me to bet on them, and the fact that they veto'd Train, which is usually one of their better maps, over D2 against AGG shows me that they aren't even confident in themselves and are doubting their map pool. Here is my predicted veto:

SK veto D2
HR veto Train
SK veto Inferno
HR veto Mirage
SK pick Overpass
HR pick Cobble/Cache

Strangely enough, I give SK a bit of a better chance after doing that veto, as long as SK ban Inferno and D2 (they dont have to worry about train as it is a perma ban from HR) they will end up on maps they like. I am not sure which map HR will pick as I think they are equally good on both, though maybe a bit stronger on Cobble. HR are pretty lackluster on Overpass, and if SK get first pick (I am just guessing who picks first in the veto) and win their map pick, there is a solid chance they go on to win HR's choice as SK are quite good on both maps.

Recommended Bet: 3% SK if they stay below 45%

NiP vs F3 | 57-43 | Med Risk

Bet Potential: 3/5

NiP are back to full strength with Pyth now, and playing overpass vs F3, who despite getting so close every time, are on a bit of a losing streak. It is deceptive though as they are playing against some of the best teams in the world, so I would even go as far as to say they are actually in good form. F3 should have beaten Mouse at Columbus, and came very close to beating NiP (albeit without Pyth) on Cache which I would usually say would be lights out in Nip's favor. Now we are on Overpass, F3's best map and one of NiP's weakest, although they have been working on it with Threat. My odds here are 60-40, and it really depends on Worldedit showing up, he was useless vs NiP at columbus so if he is on form, F3 can easily take this. Currently the odds are 69-31 in NiP's favor which lends itself nicely to a bet on F3

Recommended Bet: 4% F3 if they stay below 35%

BPro vs DTrap | 60-40 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 1/5

Don't bet on this league, even when you think you have a match figured out and there should be a clear winner, think again, this league produced the weirdest results, so I am staying away.

Recommended Bet: Run for the hills

Method vs Nerdrage | 60-40 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 1/5

Nope, just nope. Nerdrage are a mix team with 4 different nationalities and 2 UK players against Method who are inconsistent as ♥♥♥♥, nope, just nope.

Recommended Bet: SKIP

NiP vs F3 | 67-33 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 2/5

Cobble, probably F3's second best map, and what most people think as NiP's worst, but they really put work in to it and ♥♥♥♥ on Mouse at Columbus with Threat. They had amazing B site executes which caught mouse so far off guard they didnt know what to do. F3 will be more prepared though. Honestly, probably just going to skip this one and see how it plays out, could go either way, though NiP seem determined this season in the pro league so I would be a bit surprised if they dropped this one.

Recommended Bet: Skip and enjoy

Godsent vs SpaceSoldiers | 70-30 | Med Risk

Bet Potential: 1/5

Not going to be betting on this as it is Ancient's first game under their new brand GODSENT. Most teams step up their level when they get new sponsorship, or in this case, their own sponsorship, that said, as Ancient they were pretty up and down losing games to teams they shouldn't so I will stay clear of this and hope that Godsent can live up to the potential their roster has.

Recommended Bet: Skip

Aimclub vs Pixel | 55-45 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 1/5

Again, not gonna bother with these balkan games, so unpredictable.

Recommended Bet: Skip

HR vs Gambit | 65-35 | Med Risk

Bet Potential: 2/5

I simply can't see Gambit taking 2 maps off HR here, their play is so lackluster vs E-Frag right now (yay). HR have stepped up their game for this qualifier and I expect it to continue here, especially with their larger map pool. Predicted veto:

HR veto Train
Gambit veto D2
HR veto Mirage
Gambit veto Overpass
HR pick Cobble
Gambit pick Cache

Recommended Bet: 7% HR

VP vs SK | 60-40 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 2.5/5

These odds are a bit nuts, I know VP had a pretty good showing at Columbus, but let's not forget the fact that they were losing to everybody before that. Cache is easily their most inconsistent map, they can plow and be plowed on it. It is also one of SK's more inconsistent maps, but one that they do play frequently and can compete on. If SK stay below 35% I would recommend a bet on them, VP can easily go back to being bots.

Recommended Bet: 4% SK if they stay below 35%

6.4.2016 NA

6 April, 2016 - neb | 0 Comments

Winterfox vs Echo Fox | 67-33 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 1/5

Battle of the foxes, both with lineups thatyou would think could perform much better than they do in reality. Echo fox went 11-5 in esea premier including a 16-1 loss to tempo storm on overpass (one of Tempos weakest maps). While winterfox have their struggles, they are quite far superior to this echo fox lineup, especially with M0e saying that seangares has left echo fox for another team. Unless WFX odds go below say 60%, it's not worth betting on this game in my opinion. Echo fox simply dont have the firepower to go up against winterfox, they struggled to get many of their wins in ESEA-P and took some crushing losses (16-7 to Obey).

Recommended Bet: Skip

Sinister vs Vexx | 57-43 | High Risk

Bet Potential: 2/5

Vexx recently picked up this ESEA-P team who went 6-10 this season while Sinister went 15-1 in ESEA-M. I watched Sinister vs 3rd Eq. and they have some insane aimers, Food and Insaniac were nuts and Jgrant was hitting AWP shots Kenny hasn't hit in months. Their scrim results aren't stellar, but we can't take too much away from that seeing as they did go 15-1 in Main. Vexx had some very up and down results in Premier, they seem to have either lost quite badly or crushed their opponents, this leads me to believe they are momentum based and this game will depends greatly on who takes pistol rounds and can dominate the economy. Vexx do have names I recognize however such as: Kwong, Handles, Ruin, who have all competed in premier for a while now. Sinister also have quite high hours, lowest at 56 and highest at 200 (the ♥♥♥♥) other three around 70-80. Vexx on the other hand hover more around 40-40. Overall, I think Sinister have more fragging ability, though Vexx play at a higher level, and if they get rolling, it might be hard for Sinister to stop them.

Recommended Bet: Might be worth a small bet (3%) on Vexx if they stay below 35% though I do think Sinister will win this so be wary

Echo Fox vs Obey | 35-65 | Med Risk

Bet Potential: 3.5/5

This could end up being the bet of the day. As I write this, Obey are sitting at 46% (only 5000 items though). Obey went 14-1 in ESEA-P only losing to Tempo Storm in Overtime. They hardly let any teams get in to the double digits. Even when they played Tempo Storm in the stream.me gauntlet, they played them quite close. They also went toe to toe with winterfox. On the other hand Echo fox (without Sgares now) got completely shafted by Tempo every time they played them (16-1 on overpass in ESEA + 0-2 in dreamhack qualifier). They also lost 5 games in ESEA-P and came close to losing many more. Without Sean, they may aswell be a pug with wildly inconsistent fraggers. In my eyes, Obey are quite heavily favored in this game and if Obey stay below or even around 50%, I would consider a sizable bet on them.

Recommended Bet: 10% if they stay below 50%, 7% if they stay below 55%, 5% if they stay below 60%

will keep updating, quick shower first :)