This guide is essentially just a bunch of heavy number crunching. I post an overview of my conclusions, but the main value here is the numbers themselves.

With that in mind, if you draw any interesting conclusions yourself, leave a comment! I'll be sure to update and expand the guide periodically, since I need to check back every so often to keep on top of any tweaks made to the decks by LoG - this is one of the ones that's "Never Done".

Since this is all math and numbers - things I am terrible at - I'm letting a spreadsheet do the calculating for me, because I am less bad at spreadsheets than I am at manual math. As far as I can tell, my card values are correct and up to date based on the in-game rarities from the Card Gallery at time of posting. If the information in this guide conflicts with the Wiki, I'd flatter myself to say that my spreadsheet is the correct one.

That said, be sure to check the respective dates on each if you want to be absolutely sure. Still, this was a long haze of data entry. If you notice I've made a mistake, please don't hesitate to call me out on it; here or in the sheet.

Spreadsheet Link

This sentence right here redirects to Google Sheets.[docs.google.com] It gives edit permissions, but all sheets are protected. This setup will allow you to leave comments directly in the sheet if desired, and paves the way for a future card-counting update.

Contents

The spreadsheet contains 10 tabs, as follows:

These tabs contain the calculated chance to draw a given category of card.

• Draw Chance by Symbol
  
• Draw Chance by Cost
  
• Draw Chance by Effect

These are the easiest to draw actionable information from, but they are also two calculations up: they pull sums from the Master Card Values tab, which is itself pulling from the raw data. I've taken pains to ensure everything in the spreadsheet is correct, but if I did make a mistake, this is where it will be hardest to spot.

It's just the one, actually. This guy pulls the raw data into sums, and feeds it into draw chance.

• Master Card Values

I doubt this tab will be much use to players, but I've left it unhidden to show my work transparently for any numberphiles out there. Still, you never know.

This is where it gets interesting. These tabs show the actual current values associated with each card at time of posting, and I've applied several filters to each so you can play around with them and see what shakes out. If you have specific questions to answer, these are where to ask them.

• Items
  
• Spells
  
• Trickery
  
• Items by Effect
  
• Spells by Effect
  
• Trickery by Effect

I'm fully aware that there are more ways to sort these than I've created so far. If you'd like to make your own, I'd appreciate it if you could leave a comment: tell me to add them to this copy of the sheet, so I can make them available for everyone.

Filtering and Sorting

Because the sheets are locked, it's not possible for y'all to apply your own filter and sort rules. I've made a few basic ones, which you can apply like so:
Figure 1: The Data > Filter Views dropdown menu for the Items By Effect tab.

The filters are numbered both to make navigation easier, and to indicate the number of sort levels applied: 0 for Alphabetical and Gallery Order, which are really just there to make card lookups easier; 1 for a single-column sort; 2 for a double sort and so on. I expect most people will use the rightmost columns less frequently, so those filters are left un-numbered to push them to the end of the menu. Version 1.0 of this guide does not yet include any filters for 2 or more sort rules simultaneously - Card Symbols by Cost, for example.

Again, if you need any new filters added, or if you think of any quality-of-life improvements to existing ones - heck, if you want me to add new percentage tabs I haven't considered yet - please-pretty-please leave a comment here or in the sheet. Leave a comment even if someone else beat you to it! I'm more than happy to keep expanding this, but I want to spend my time on the things more people want.

This section is pretty sparse so far because I've spent the bulk of my time making absolutely sure the actual data is comprehensive and correct.

Sword
Items, but Trickery is almost as good; better if people have been equipping themselves heavily. There are no sword cards in the Spell deck.

Shield
Trickery, then items, then spells. All 3 decks have a decent chance, unless people have been casting heavily.

Sun
Spells. The Trickery deck has a few, too, but you've got double the chances going Green.

Moon
Trickery. Spells are almost as good, though - especially if Griotte or Elyssia have been up to their usual tricks.

Wyld
Spells and Items have almost even chances, though Spells have a marginal lead - keep an eye on people's draws, if you can. There are no Wyld cards in the Trickery deck.

Rot
Spells are your best best: casters make the most reliable Rot victors. There are a fair number of Rot cards in the Item deck, too, though. Trickery may as well not have any - Plague Bearers now costs Prestige instead of inflicting Rot.

v0.9

• Created in 2018 and shared with a now-defunct independent Armello fan Discord

v1.0

• Updated values to 2021 actual - changes from Patch 2.0.2 in bold
  
• Locked sheets; added filter views - ready for public viewing
  
• Added rows to Draw Chance by Effect: "Equippable", "Buff/Consumable", "Play to Creature", "Play on Creature"

• Add Card Counting tab to allow players to subtract cards seen in play (long-term)
  
• Add 2-layer filters to raw data tabs
  
• Expand Conclusions section
  
• Implement player suggestions as needed